Dot Baires Shopping Center in Buenos Aires

Shopping centers like Dot Baires are packed with locals and tourists in a buying mood. (Photo: E. Gallelli)

When we look back on 2010 in Argentina from an economic standpoint, the year will be remembered for some key trends that helped lift the country out of the doldrums of 2008/09: consumer confidence, retail spending, housing demand and the record influx of tourists, both domestic (notably BA for the Bicentennial) and international.

And while we’re still months away from closing the books on 2010, Alfredo Sainz of La Nacion says all of these factors are peaking simultaneously to send winter out with a serious bang of discretionary spending.

“The combination of low temperatures,good macroeconomic signals, purchases delayed for two years, the lack of saving alternatives and a massive flood of Brazilian tourists all combined to make the perfect recipe for winter vacations and winter 2010 in general,” writes Sainz adding, “From the shopping centers, the multiplexes, the clothing stores, the tourism agencies and the airlines, this winter season has been the most successful of the last three years.”

Retail sales are up 20-50% at Dot Baires, Alto Avellaneda, Paseo Alcorta, Abasto and Unicenter; box office ticket sales are up 65%; and the 20% bump in tourists has pushed average hotel occupancy rates to 90%. On the transportation side, Aerolineas Argentinas just announced a 30% increase in July traffic and a whopping 240% increase in traffic from Brazil.

And in a clever case of making limonada out of limoes, the country’s early exodus from the World Cup prompted TAM to divert some originally-scheduled South Africa routes down to the ski slopes of Bariloche. (Full Story in Spanish)

For more information on Buenos Aires shopping and luxury living, download the new issue of InvestBA Privada.

Argentina Real GDP Growth graph in Wells Fargo Report

With private expenditure and GDP growth, Wells Fargo sees signs of a recovery in Argentina.

The buzz about Argentina seems to be having an impact on investors of all stripes. After Sunday’s 3-1 defeat of Mexico, global betting sources say the Albiceleste’s odds of winning the World Cup improved to 15/4, third only to Spain and Brazil. Whether sports gambling qualifies as “investing” is certainly open to debate; however, a more sober cadre of long-term investors are also starting to take note.

San Francisco-based financial giant Wells Fargo featured an unlikely subject for this week’s front-page Economic & Financial Commentary: Argentina. The analysis showed Argentina’s 7.9% growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2009 followed by a healthy 6.8% year-over-year rate in 1Q10.

Meanwhile, Argentine private consumption expenditures which rose a mere 0.5% in 2009, grew 7.3% in the first quarter of this year alone. The nation’s spending recovery is also reflected in the current trade balance, as imported goods and services jumped 30% in the first quarter. Unfortunately, exported goods and services only rose 4%, although Wells Fargo notes the strength of the Brazilian economy as a contributing factor in Argentina’s recovery.

While over-dependence on Brazil’s fortunes is a concern, the ongoing China soy conflict highlights the need for 1.) less federal government intervention and 2.) cultivation of more international trade relationships in the Americas, the Euro-zone and Asia. To read the full Wells Fargo Securities report, click here.

Argentina Consumer Confidence graph

After two years of unrest, the national outlook in Argentina is slowly improving.

Turn on Bloomberg or CNN International, and you’ll see optimism is a rare global commodity these days. Gulf of Mexico residents watch their livelihoods disappear, the Euro hits a 4-year low against the dollar, and Iran prepares to join the flotilla party on the Gaza strip. Funny thing then this Argentina.

Maybe it’s PBES (Post-Bicentennial Euphoria Syndrome) or possibly PMOS (Pre-Mundial Optimism Syndrome). Or maybe it is a genuine belief among Argentines that the times they are a changing, and better days lie ahead. The front-page headline of La Nacion yesterday certainly suggests a strong shift in the winds of local expectations.

“After an extended period of a political and social conflicts, economic crisis and serious questions about the quality of their elected officials,” says La Nacion, “the negative national outlook has started to moderate regarding the country, the government and the future.”

According to the survey conducted by Poliarqui­a, twice as many Argentines are optimistic about the country’s future compared to just six months ago, while the number of residents who have a negative outlook fell 22 points from 54% to 32%.

While the numbers are encouraging, concerns persist on a variety of issues affecting Argentines like unemployment, poverty and insecurity. In summary, La Nacion cautions public officials against breaking out the party hats; yet, a rising tide of optimism anywhere in the world today deserves a second look. (Full Story in Spanish)

 

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