Units for Sale in Madrid

For Sale signs drape the exterior of units in Madrid (pictured), Barcelona and coastal towns like Malaga.

With rumors of an international bailout swirling, union protests over proposed pension reform and unemployment now officially over 20%, 20.33% to be exact, Spain’s misery is poised to worsen this year. And that’s great news for Argentines looking to purchase real estate in Barcelona, Madrid and Majorca.

Spain’s housing collapse began in 2008 and prices have fallen sharply in the major metros and coastal regions like Malaga, Almeri­a, Valencia, Ibiza and Alicante. Now analysts are projecting a further slide in 2011.

Fitch Ratings estimates Spanish real estate prices will fall another 10% this year which makes Spain and Ireland the two weakest markets in Europe. iProfesional’s Patricio Eleisegui lists the variables contributing to the olfato criollo: “Excess inventory, a growing number of bank-owned properties coming to market, rising unemployment, unpopular austerity measures recently enacted by the Spanish government and projections for a weak economic recovery this year.” Adding fuel to the fire is the national debate that has erupted over whether giving up one’s residence is sufficient to settle one’s debt obligation: predictably defaulting homeowners say “Yes” and the banks say “No.”

While that debate wages on, Argentines are snatching up three-room apartments in Madrid for US$120,000, in Barcelona for US$150,000, and condos on the beaches of Malaga for as little as US$100,000. After Argentines, Eleisegui says Americans and British investors are the most active buyers in Spain today. Analysts say the fact Spanish property prices have fallen to the level of Puerto Madero would have been inconceivable just three or four years ago. And while SIMA, Spain’s annual real estate expo, was a total bust last year, maybe the key to success for the 2011 edition would be re-branding and tweaking the acronym to reflect the status quo: Spain Is Muy Asequible. (Full Story in Spanish)

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Buenos Aires Taxi

Looking back on the past decade, gold and real estate investors in Argentina fared best. (Photo: Johann Rela)

If hindsight is 20/20, what would it tell us about the best and worst investments one could have made in Argentina following the collapse of convertibility and the ensuing crisis in 2001? Reuben Ramallo of iProfesional recently tested that premise, as four fictional friends met for lunch in Palermo Hollywood to reminisce about the good old days and see who had made the best investment.

Fernando put his money in real estate, Pablo kept his pesos in dollars, Eduardo kept rolling his money over in short-term bank CD’s, while Juan Martín stocked up on gold. The clear winner, says Ramallo, was Juan Martín whose gold bars accumulated 1,613% in peso-denominated value since 2002.

The real estate investor came out in second place, assuming he bought in Capital Federal where peso-denominated values have risen 500% over the last eight years. Third place went to Pablo whose choice of greenbacks would have netted him a 300% gain, while Eduardo’s relatively safe CD play appreciated roughly 160%.

The infamous “inflacion de bolsillo” (pocket inflation) was the key differentiator separating the best and the worst investments. It rose 454% over the period in question meaning those who invested in gold and real estate were the clear winners compared to those whose investments were weighed down by a weakening peso. The director of ZonaBancos.com says the situation was most volatile in the first year post-Convertibility when the peso dropped from $1.40 to $3.82. In contrast, the past seven years have been much less volatile under the Central Bank’s policy of floating administration. (Full article in Spanish)

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Mercedes-Benz Argentina

If March sales figures are any indication, 2010 will be a very good year for MB Argentina.

If March sales figures were any indication, 2010 will be a very good year for European luxury automakers exporting to Argentina.

According to iProfesional; Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche all posted double or triple-digit gains in units sold compared to March 2009. Several factors are contributing to the current boom: the falling Euro, pent-up demand after automakers slashed production and exports in ’09 and the introduction of several new luxury models in Argentina like the Audi A5 Sportback and the BMW 5-Series Gran Turismo.

BMW posted the largest gain with a 142% increase in units sold; 44% of those were 300 series models. Porsche was second with a 100% increase in units sold, while Audi posted a 52% increase. Of the four main European luxury brands, Mercedes-Benz sold the most units (588) in March.

And local analysts say the boom-de-lujo is not limited to autos; high-end consumer demand for fine watches, jewelry and whiskeys is also strong thanks in large part to the strength of the Brazilian economy which is being described as an umbrella for Argentine companies posting record exports of cars, appliances and textiles to consumption-minded Brazil.

Inflation has also forced the hand of Argentine retailers who are offering attractive, peso-denominated payment plans on goods once reserved for the upper class like large-screen LCD televisions. iProfesional also credits the European automakers for offering attractive financing plans like BMW’s four-year, 0% interest plan and bringing entry-level model prices down to around US$30,000.  (Full article)

For more information about luxury brands and living in Buenos Aires, download the new issue of InvestBA Privada.

 

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