Punta del Este Parada Itau

Clouds of uncertainty over the beaches of Punta del Este if fewer Argentines are buying.

A perfect storm of ARS:UYU currency weakness, recently imposed dollar conversion controls and looming fears Uruguay may soon be much less of a tax haven has many Punta del Este developers and hoteliers envisioning an uncertain future with fewer Argentines.

“Several Punta del Este real estate projects have hit the brakes and sales are practically frozen,” writes La Nacion’s Nelson Fernandez blaming the weaker Argentine peso, the Argentina-imposed currency controls and the prospect the Mujica administration will yield to OECD pressure and sign a tax information sharing agreement with Argentina. With uncertainty beyond the upcoming summer season, we offer three predictions for the Punta del Este real estate market.

1.) Argentina Staycations. With a weaker peso making Punta del Este vacations and properties less affordable, more Argentines will opt to vacation at home. While Argentina’s beaches don’t compare with Uruguay’s, there will be more “staycation” activity in attractive parts of the interior like Bariloche, Cordoba, Mendoza, Rosario and Salta.

2.) Punta del Norte: If the stalled real estate projects in and around Punta del Este are going to get back on track, they need to market aggressively to foreign buyers to the north, namely Brazilians and North Americans. Despite the global slowdown, they have the greatest purchasing power and are not hampered by currency controls or weakness.

3.) Marketing Makeover: Several new projects launched this year in Punta del Este, Manantiales, La Barra and Jose Ignacio will need to refocus their sales and marketing efforts, especially if a.) their success hinged entirely on high net worth Argentines or b.) they were targeting a more middle class Argentine buyer. The buyers of high-end properties in Punta del Este will have a new category designation, OTA (Other than Argentine), while the middle class developments will need to be rethought or refocused toward neighboring Brazilians. (Full Story in Spanish)

For more information about investment opportunities in and around Punta del Este, download the new issue of InvestBA Privada.

Festeja Cada Gol con Coca-Cola

Celebrate Every Goal? What Goals? The heat is on for Messi and Co. tonight in Colombia.

When the Seleccion Argentina takes the field tonight for a 2014 World Cup Qualifying match against Colombia, the only thing more uncomfortable than the 100-degree temperatures in Barranquilla will be the heat they are feeling here at home.

2011 has been a year of unmet expectations and surprise upsets for the National Team. Argentina hosted the Copa America in July, but the team scored only one goal in the first two games. Giant Coca-Cola billboards around the country encouraging fans to “Celebrate Every Goal” seemed a tad optimistic. The team finally managed two goals against Costa Rica before being eliminated by eventual winner Uruguay in the Quarterfinals.

The World Cup Qualifiers have not been much easier to watch. Only five goals scored in three games, a 1-0 loss to Venezuela, and a disappointing 1-1 tie against Bolivia last Friday. New coach Alejandro Sabella’s CV is a mediocre 3-2-2 in the seven games he has coached since August 6. Not helping matters is the lackluster production of the world’s greatest soccer player whenever he trades his Barcelona jersey for the blue and white stripes.

Messi has already described tonight’s match as a must-win, a sentiment shared by Argentina fans and corporate sponsors alike. Far from optimistic about tonight’s match, La Nacion’s Santiago Peluffo says Sabella seems to be a coach still in search of a team, while commentator Horario Pagani says the oppressive heat in Barranquilla “is tremendous.” Another loss tonight and it only gets hotter. (Full Story in Spanish)

For more information about upcoming events in Buenos Aires, download InvestBA Privada.

An abandoned retail icon could get new life and celebrate its 100th anniversary in 2014.

An abandoned BA retail icon could get new life and celebrate its 100th anniversary in 2014.

Omnia Omnibus Ubique…etiam Buenos Aires?  One of the world’s most famous luxury department stores may soon reopen its landmark Buenos Aires location if a UK investment group purchases and restores the seven-story Harrods building at Florida Street and Cordoba Avenue, according to Alfredo Sainz at La Nacion.

While London-based Harrods is best known for luxury retail, real estate, private banking and aviation services in the UK, the company opened Harrods Buenos Aires in March 1914 which was the most traditional department store in the city for eight decades until closing its doors in the late 90′s. Now those doors could re-open in time for the 100th anniversary of the original grand opening.

Sainz says UK asset management firm Optimum Advisors is finishing due diligence on the purchase and restoration of the BA retail icon, a deal valued at US$280 million. Local market conditions including near-100% occupancy at BA shopping centers and the voracious retail appetite of Brazilian tourists bode well for the restoration of such a high-profile department store. The group is also negotiating for the right to take the Harrods brand to Brazil, specifically Sao Paulo.

Among its other real estate holdings, Optimum Advisors manages a residential chacra development north of Jose Ignacio and an Agribusiness Fund with farmland in Arkansas and Argentina. (Full Story in Spanish)

For more information about Buenos Aires investment opportunities, download the new issue of InvestBA Privada.

Asian countries Number Two Austin Powers

Your stock is rising Number Two: The Asiatizacion is playing out around South America.

The Asian continent has moved into the number two spot in terms of Argentina trade relations and continues gaining ground on North America in terms of trade and regional dependence. The analysis written by University of Palermo economics professor Marcelo Santoro appears in the Foreign Trade supplement of today’s La Nacion.

Santoro says Asian demand and record prices for Argentine commodity exports represent “a transcendental milestone in Argentina trade history since the middle of the last decade.” Today Asian countries are the #2 destination for Argentine exports and collectively the #2 providers of Argentine imports.

The author describes burgeoning trade and cultural ties with countries like China, India, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as Argentina’s “Asiatizacion.” While Argentina recorded positive trade balances with both the Far East and Middle East in 2010, the surplus is much greater with the Middle East (US$2.5 billion) than the Far East (US$379 million) considering the growing quantity of capital and electronic goods Argentina imports from China, Thailand and South Korea.

Santoro says this “Asiatizacion” is happening throughout South America where China ranks among the top three trade partners of Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela and Peru. The level of Asian interest and capital investment in South America is unprecedented and cuts across all sectors including mining, banking, real estate, electric generation, oil & gas and appliance manufacturing. (Full Story in Spanish)

Jose Mujica with Diego Forlan and Diego Lugano

Winners: "Prudent and consistent" describes Uruguay both on and off the field. (Source: Pablo Porciuncula)

With the weekend media frenzy over debts and deficits, and the U.S. poised to join China, Belgium and Spain in the “Double-A” club, it’s refreshing to find a country that S&P is actually upgrading. From the Copa America to phenomenal tourism growth, Uruguay already has plenty to celebrate, and the country’s increasingly positive outlook has not been overlooked by the rating agencies.

Standard & Poor’s upgraded Uruguay’s sovereign credit ratings this week from BB to BB+, just one notch below investment grade. With the upgrade, S&P affirmed what Fitch and Moody’s have previously validated: Uruguay under the administration of President Jose Mujica is maintaining “prudent and consistent” policies.

“The upgrade on Uruguay incorporates its growing track record on the implementation of prudent and consistent economic policies” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Sebastián Briozzo. Maintaining the current policies is essential for Uruguay “to continue achieving greater economic flexibility, resist the ever growing regional and global uncertainty and persist in its impulse to improve its credit ratings.”

The most recent Uruguay upgrade comes only ten months after the last S&P upgrade, BB- to BB, in September 2010. Uruguay held investment grade status from 1997 to 2002 when it plunged into financial crisis. The past decade has been one of rebuilding of confidence, sound policies and foreign investment. (Full Story in Spanish)

 

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