Buenos Aires Subte at Rush Hour

Morning rush on the Subte could get a little more crowded given growing optimism and labor demand.

More signs of local and regional optimism on the front page of La Nacion yesterday. A new Manpower Argentina hiring study finds 17% of Argentine companies plan to hire additional employees between now and the end of the year.

The headline, Employment Recovers, Trend Expected to Continue through 2011, was almost as welcome as the recap of yesterday’s albiceleste drubbing of Spain. In addition, a labor demand analysis by the UniversidadTorcuato Di Tella (UTDT) supports the Manpower findings.

After analyzing the job classifieds published by La Nacion and Clarin in August, UTDT found the number of Help Wanted ads rose 2.6% compared to July and 16% compared to July 2009. “The growing demand will translate into more employment in the coming months,” said UTDT’s Martín Gonzalez Rozada adding, “We anticipate a jobs recovery across all sectors of employment.”

The local optimism is part of a larger regional trend, as key South American economies continue growing despite the global slowdown. The Manpower study found even greater corporate confidence across the border in Brazil where 37% of companies plan to boost hiring in the final trimester of 2010, 24% in Peru and 17% in Colombia.

At the lower end of the optimism scale were the United States with a modest 4% and Spain with -4%. (Something amusing about Spain and the number “-4″ yesterday.) Looking at Argentina labor demand by sector, the strongest demand lies in construction and mining, services and transportation, while looking at demand by region, 20% of job creation will take place in Capital Federal and Greater Buenos Aires. (Full Story in Spanish)

Puerto Madero Construction

Back from the depths of 2009, BA's real estate sector posted a 41% gain in transactions in May.

A story we’ve monitored closely since the end of last year is the recovery of the BA real estate sector. After an abysmal 2009, December finally offered a positive note; a trend that continued during the first four months of this year.

Now the newly-released housing data for May suggest BA’s property rebound is in full swing. According to the BA Notary Association, the sale of properties jumped 41% in May compared to a year ago, while the value of all real estate transactions rose 91%.

Cronista says the second statistic reflects the large number of buyers taking delivery of high-end units that have been under construction for the last 2-3 years. The 5,165 real estate transactions in May were valued at 1.908 billion pesos argentinos or US$484.82 million.

While local analysts say signs of a recovery abound, it’s worth remembering the year-over-year basis of comparison: the first six months of 2009 was one of the worst periods for BA real estate. As the global financial crisis gathered steam, confidence was shattered and buyers were scarce in the Southern Cone. Now a year later, a rare global commodity has returned to Argentina and Uruguay: optimism.

The May housing numbers show units priced between US$60,000 and US$220,000 accounted for 38% of all sales, while units priced below $60,000 represented 56% of all transactions. The sale of units priced above US$220,000 doubled from 3% last May to 6% in May 2010. (Full Story in Spanish)

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Argentina Consumer Confidence graph

After two years of unrest, the national outlook in Argentina is slowly improving.

Turn on Bloomberg or CNN International, and you’ll see optimism is a rare global commodity these days. Gulf of Mexico residents watch their livelihoods disappear, the Euro hits a 4-year low against the dollar, and Iran prepares to join the flotilla party on the Gaza strip. Funny thing then this Argentina.

Maybe it’s PBES (Post-Bicentennial Euphoria Syndrome) or possibly PMOS (Pre-Mundial Optimism Syndrome). Or maybe it is a genuine belief among Argentines that the times they are a changing, and better days lie ahead. The front-page headline of La Nacion yesterday certainly suggests a strong shift in the winds of local expectations.

“After an extended period of a political and social conflicts, economic crisis and serious questions about the quality of their elected officials,” says La Nacion, “the negative national outlook has started to moderate regarding the country, the government and the future.”

According to the survey conducted by Poliarqui­a, twice as many Argentines are optimistic about the country’s future compared to just six months ago, while the number of residents who have a negative outlook fell 22 points from 54% to 32%.

While the numbers are encouraging, concerns persist on a variety of issues affecting Argentines like unemployment, poverty and insecurity. In summary, La Nacion cautions public officials against breaking out the party hats; yet, a rising tide of optimism anywhere in the world today deserves a second look. (Full Story in Spanish)

 

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