The more distracted Argentina becomes, the more likely Brazil will dominate the Southern Cone.

As he held up crude-covered hands to the throng of photographers gathered on the gleaming, state-of-the-art Petrobras platform, Brazil’s outgoing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva smiled. He had good news to share sprinkled with superlatives, like most of the headlines coming out of Brazil these days. Not only would the new oil and gas platform soon be producing 180,000 barrels a day but, fresh off its largest global offering ever, Petrobras also has a cool US$132 billion in the bank for future acquisitions. Another day, another real, another triumph and one step closer to Southern Cone dominance. If you’re trying to make sense of the regional power play, Stratfor Global Intelligence has a must-read analysis of Brazil’s hard-fought path to prosperity; recent efforts to seduce buffer states Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay; and the unfortunate key ingredient to ultimate Brazilian dominance of the Southern Cone: Argentina’s distraction. The more Argentina gets pulled down by populist-driven policies, macro instability and political uncertainty, Stratfor argues, the more likely Brazil will continue to shore up dominance and influence over the border states and eventually the region as a whole. Growing currency instability and socioeconomic disparity in Brazil are also cited as potential obstacles, but it’s the cross-border opportunism (“Brazil’s ability to capitalise on Argentina’s decline”) that, not unlike the truth, stings the most. With presidential elections still a year away, Argentina will have plenty of time for distractions and Brazil plenty of room for continental influence-wielding in the months ahead.  (Full Story)